2026 Midterm Threat Assessment

Federal Election Interference Risk Map

Tracking DOJ lawsuits, FBI actions, Project 2025 implementation, and competitive House races. Based on Brennan Center, DOJ press releases, NPR, and news reporting through October 6, 2026.

Latest Developments
Oct 3
Shasta County, California destroys its 2024 ballots — The county shredded its November 2024 ballots and election materials on Oct 3, after the required retention period ended Sep 5, as protesters first tried to block the shredding truck. A federal grand jury subpoena for the county's June 2026 primary ballots has been reported but not confirmed; the Justice Department would not comment New
Oct 2
NAACP sues DOJ for records on its plan to send about 1,000 monitors to the polls — The records lawsuit follows a Sep 1 request that went unanswered. It seeks DOJ's legal authority for the deployment, the monitors' training and planned locations, and whether the FBI, ICE, or DHS will take part New
Oct 2
New Hampshire's student-ID ban stays in place for November — Judge Joseph Laplante declined to block HB 323, the 2026 law that removed student IDs from the list of accepted voter identification, citing the principle that courts should not change voting rules close to an election. The Coalition for Open Democracy's challenge continues New
Sep 30
Georgia dismissed — DOJ now 0 for 26 in court — Judge Victoria Calvert ruled that federal law does not override Georgia's voter-privacy law and that the Civil Rights Act does not entitle DOJ to the state's unredacted voter roll. This was DOJ's second Georgia suit; the first was dismissed in January for being filed in the wrong court. No court at any level has ruled for DOJ New
Sep 28
Georgia election board votes to seek DOJ and DHS help on voting machines — The State Election Board voted 3-2 to urge Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to install pending Dominion software updates and directed its executive director to seek help from the Justice Department and DHS, including by assisting their review of the state's QR-code ballots, which DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin raised in a Sep 2 letter to Attorney General Todd Blanche as a possible violation of federal law. Early voting begins Oct 13. Raffensperger's office: 'People who are serious about election security don't inject chaos in the 11th hour' New Corrected Oct 6
Sep 28
Judge strikes election conditions from anti-terrorism grants — Judge Amir Ali (D.D.C.) vacated FEMA's rule withholding 20% of Homeland Security Grant Program funds unless states and localities checked voter rolls against DHS's SAVE citizenship database, hand-audited 5% of ballots, and moved to hand-marked ballots. He held Congress never authorized FEMA to use counterterrorism grants that way. The suit was brought by six counties and cities, including Harris and El Paso counties, Nashville, and Columbus. The separate 23-state suit is still pending, and DHS says it will impose new requirements New
Sep 25
Supreme Court lets DHS resume expanded SAVE citizenship checks, 6-3 — In DHS v. League of Women Voters, the Court paused Judge Sparkle Sooknanan's June 22 ruling that the overhauled SAVE database violates federal privacy law, the Social Security Act, and the Administrative Procedure Act. States may again run bulk checks of their voter rolls against SAVE, which now draws on Social Security records, through November. The unsigned majority said the lower court's order 'inhibits the Federal Government's efforts to assist state and local agencies' in running elections. Justices Jackson, Sotomayor, and Kagan dissented New
Sep 25
Judge requires 30 days' notice before DHS releases state citizenship lists — In EPIC's suit against DHS and the Social Security Administration, Judge Paula Xinis (D. Md.) ordered the government to notify the court 30 days before activating a portal or giving states the citizenship lists ordered by Trump's March executive order. A DOJ lawyer would not say whether the lists would be released before the midterms. The earliest possible release under the order is Oct 28, six days before Election Day New
Sep 25
Supreme Court: Missouri votes under its 2022 map — In a unanimous unsigned order, the Court held that "the 2022 map — not the 2025 map — must be used in the 2026 congressional election." This ended a month of conflicting orders. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled Sep 3 that the 2025 map never took effect because of the citizen referendum. A federal judge (Sep 8) and the 8th Circuit (Sep 21) then ordered the 2025 map. In between, the state Supreme Court found Secretary of State Denny Hoskins in contempt (Sep 10) for following the federal order, and he reversed course the same day. Absentee voting had already begun. Voters decide the 2025 map as Proposition A on Nov 3 New
Sep 25
Texas: at least 200,000 voter registrations never reached counties — The Department of Public Safety failed to send counties registration applications and updates submitted through its online driver's-license portal, dating back to October 2025. DPS blamed a software update by a third-party vendor. The state says affected voters who do not appear on the rolls can cast a provisional ballot that will count once their registration is confirmed. Registration closed Oct 5 New
Sep 24
California Supreme Court orders sheriff to return 650,000 seized ballots — In a unanimous ruling, the court ordered Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco to return about 650,000 ballots his department seized from the November 2025 Proposition 50 special election to the county registrar and to stop handling them. In a companion ruling, it ordered him to follow the Attorney General's instruction to take no further action on his investigation New
Sep 24
6th Circuit lets Ohio require proof of citizenship to register at the BMV — A 2-1 panel paused a district court order and let Ohio enforce HB 54, which allows BMV clerks to offer voter registration only after a driver's license application that requires documentary proof of citizenship. The ruling came less than two weeks before Ohio's Oct 5 registration deadline New
Sep 22
Voting groups sue over North Carolina's new absentee-ballot rules — In NC Alliance for Retired Americans v. NCSBE, filed in federal court (M.D.N.C.), three groups and two voters challenge rules the State Board adopted Sep 4, the day absentee ballots began going out. Under the rules, a ballot returned with an unsealed inner envelope must be spoiled and reissued when time remains, and counties must add a signature review New
Sep 22
Washington dismissed — DOJ 0 for 25 — Judge Kymberly Evanson dismissed DOJ's voter-roll suit with prejudice, ruling the Civil Rights Act does not reach the state's voter list. Vermont's suit had been dismissed Sep 17 New
Sep 19
California expands its state Voting Rights Act — Gov. Newsom signed SB 1164 and SB 1360, which bar voter suppression and vote dilution, add a process to stop discriminatory voting changes before they take effect, and expand language access for voters with limited English. Per the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, California is the fourth state in 2026 to enact or expand a state VRA, after Maryland, New Jersey, and Delaware New
Sep 18
Lawsuits seek to keep armed federal agents away from polling places — The NAACP, unions, and civil rights groups sued in Washington, D.C., under the Voting Rights Act's ban on voter intimidation, following a Sep 10 suit by Denver's clerk and LULAC citing federal law that makes it a crime to send armed federal officers to the polls. DHS says 'ICE is not planning operations targeting polling locations' but that it may still make targeted arrests New
Sep 14
Supreme Court keeps USPS mail-ballot rule blocked for the midterms — The Court denied DOJ's emergency request, finding the government "unlikely to succeed on the merits" of its challenge to Judge Talwani's injunction. Justices Alito and Thomas dissented. Justice Kavanaugh concurred, writing that applying the rule in 2026 would be arbitrary and capricious because election officials do not have time to implement it. A second judge, Carl Nichols in Washington, D.C., a Trump appointee, had separately blocked the rule on Sep 13, and the 1st Circuit refused to lift Talwani's injunction on Sep 10 New
Sep 10
DOJ warns election officials of "criminal sanctions" over 2024 records — Letters from Voting Section acting chief Eric Neff, made public Sep 10, ordered the 29 states and D.C. that DOJ is suing for voter data to preserve 2024 election records. The letters warn that failure "may constitute spoliation of evidence" that could bring "civil and criminal sanctions." Utah's Republican Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson said DOJ should "focus on actual problems instead of baselessly harassing election officials" New
Sep 4
Judge blocks USPS mail-ballot rule through the November election — Judge Talwani converted her Aug 27 order into a preliminary injunction in suits by 23 states plus D.C. and by voting-rights groups, finding that "immediate implementation of the Final Rule issued less than seventy days before the November 2026 election threatens disenfranchisement of millions of United States citizens who seek to vote by mail." North Carolina began mailing absentee ballots the same day, the first state to do so New
Sep 3
Maryland's redistricting question goes back on the ballot, rewritten — The Supreme Court of Maryland overturned lower-court orders that had blocked Question 3, but found the legislature's ballot wording misleading and replaced it with the purpose paragraph from the bill itself. Justice Steven Gould dissented, joined by Senior Justice Glenn Harrell. The amendment would let the General Assembly give the state Supreme Court original jurisdiction over congressional maps and would state that the Maryland Constitution sets no criteria for congressional districts New
Sep 3
Michigan citizenship-verification amendment stays off the ballot — The U.S. Supreme Court and the Michigan Supreme Court both rejected the campaign's requests on Sep 3. The state Board of State Canvassers had deadlocked 2-2 along party lines on certifying it Aug 24, and the Michigan court held certification was within the board's discretion. The amendment would have required voters to prove citizenship to vote a full ballot, creating two separate voter rolls New
Sep 1
Tarrant County, Texas cuts 92 Election Day polling sites — Commissioners voted 3-2 along party lines, with County Judge Tim O'Hare and Commissioners Matt Krause and Manny Ramirez in favor, to drop from 316 Election Day sites in the 2022 midterms to 224 this November, in a county of more than 1.3 million registered voters. Early voting sites drop from 50 to 47 New
Aug 27
Judge blocks the finalized USPS mail-ballot rule — Judge Talwani issued a 14-day temporary restraining order against the rule, finding the challengers likely to succeed, that USPS likely lacked authority to issue it, and that the record contained no evidence of mail-voting fraud. The day before, she had lifted her own earlier nationwide order in light of the Supreme Court's Aug 24 ruling
Aug 27
Wyoming's Republican governor objects to DOJ election monitors — Two DOJ attorneys at Laramie County's Aug 18 primary arrived unannounced, sought to examine tabulators, and tried to interview voters, which the county clerk refused. Gov. Mark Gordon said their behavior "seemed to exceed what the authority that Congress had given them was." DOJ plans to deploy about 1,000 monitors nationwide for November
Aug 25
Oklahoma writes voter ID into its state constitution — State Question 846 passed 292,481 to 243,064, about 55%. Oklahoma has required voter ID by statute since 2011, so nothing changes at the polls; what changes is that a future legislature can no longer repeal it
Aug 24
League of Women Voters sues South Dakota over how it runs its new registration law — The League of Women Voters of South Dakota and a voter sued in federal court, asking that the state's new voter-registration law be carried out in a way that complies with federal law. The suit challenges how the law is administered, not the law itself New
Aug 24
Supreme Court lifts Talwani's June injunction, 6-3 — The unsigned order held the injunction premature because USPS had not yet finalized its rule, and expressly declined to rule on legality. Justice Jackson dissented that it "needlessly injects chaos and uncertainty into the upcoming midterm elections." USPS had published its final mail-ballot rule on Aug 21
Aug 22
Judge orders ICE to justify withholding polling-place records — In the DNC's records suit over plans to deploy federal agents and troops to polling places, Judge Beryl Howell called ICE's projected June 2027 completion date "an unacceptable delay given the proximity of the 2026 midterm elections" and ordered an itemized justification of withheld records by Sep 10
Aug 20
North Carolina board drops Sunday early voting in 10 counties — Deciding early-voting plans for 20 counties whose local boards could not agree, the State Board of Elections' Republican majority left 10 counties that had Sunday voting in the 2022 midterms with none this year. The board also approved a Guilford County plan without early-voting sites at UNC Greensboro and N.C. A&T New
Aug 20
DNC sues DOJ for ballot-seizure records — The records suit in D.D.C. seeks documents on any "planned, anticipated, or potential" seizure of election materials from 30 days before an election through certification, after a February request went unanswered. The suit does not establish that such a plan exists
Aug 18
DOJ monitors Miami-Dade County's primary — The Justice Department sent about four Civil Rights Division attorneys to monitor polls in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and two to Laramie County, Wyoming, for the Aug 18 primaries. DOJ said it had deployed over 75 monitors across five states and over 200 polling locations this primary season New
Aug 17
Nevada and Minnesota dismissed — DOJ 0 for 23 — Nevada's voter-data suit was dismissed Aug 14 and Minnesota's Aug 17. Also on Aug 14, the 6th Circuit refused DOJ's request for full-court rehearing of its loss in the Michigan case
Aug 17
North Carolina governor vetoes election omnibus — Gov. Josh Stein vetoed HB 958. House Speaker Destin Hall deferred any override attempt until after November
Aug 12
5th Circuit reinstates parts of Texas SB 1 — Judge Andrew Oldham held the LUPE plaintiffs lacked standing, vacating permanent injunctions and reviving ID requirements on mail-ballot applications, the state's cure processes, and oath rules for people who assist voters. The court did not reach the merits
Aug 6
D.C., Colorado, and Illinois dismissed — DOJ 0 for 21 — Illinois's voter-data suit was dismissed Jul 31, Colorado's Aug 3, and D.C.'s Aug 6
Aug 6
Delaware enacts a state Voting Rights Act — Gov. Matt Meyer signed HB 444, the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, on the 61st anniversary of the federal VRA. It takes effect July 1, 2027, so it does not govern this November
Aug 5
Maryland sends a redistricting amendment to voters — Gov. Wes Moore signed HB 2100 after a three-day special session, placing Question 3 on the November ballot. Two lawsuits followed within days
What You Can Do Now
→Verify your voter registration — Check now and again before November. Protect against purges.
Check at vote.org →
→Volunteer as a poll worker or observer — More eyes on the process deter irregularities.
Find your local signup →
→Support local election officials — Attend board meetings, push back publicly on threats and intimidation.
Common Cause Election Hub →
→Fund legal defense efforts — The Brennan Center, ACLU, and state AGs are fighting DOJ lawsuits and winning.
Brennan Center Tracker →   ACLU Voting Rights →
→Contact your state representatives — Urge them to resist handing over sensitive voter data.
Find your legislators →
→Track Project 2025 implementation — Stay informed on what's being implemented in real time.
Project 2025 Tracker →   Votebeat →