2026 Midterm Threat Assessment

Federal Election Interference Risk Map

Tracking DOJ lawsuits, FBI actions, Project 2025 implementation, and competitive House races. Based on Brennan Center, DOJ press releases, NPR, and news reporting through July 30, 2026.

Latest Developments
Jul 29
New Jersey dismissed — DOJ now 0 for 18 in court — Judge Quraishi ruled the Civil Rights Act doesn't authorize access to the state's voter database. DOJ has lost every district-court ruling in its voter-data campaign New
Jul 28
D.C. Circuit declines to block mail-voting EO — separate challenge ruled premature until USPS actually implements the order, while noting "serious questions" about its lawfulness. EO's midterm status now split across circuits New
Jul 27
Trump asks Supreme Court to unleash mail-voting EO — emergency application to stay the injunction and allow full implementation before Nov 3. States' response due Aug 3. First SCOTUS test of the anti-voting executive orders New
Jul 25
1st Circuit keeps mail-voting EO blocked — divided panel refuses DOJ's stay request, warning implementation "would sow confusion and threaten disenfranchisement of many eligible voters" New
Jul 24
23 states sue over DHS grant conditions — Illinois-led coalition (plus D.C. and the governors of KY and PA) challenges DHS tying $1.5B in security grants to hand-marked ballots, manual audits, and SAVE voter-roll screening. At least $148M at stake New
Jul 24
New Jersey refuses DOJ's 5-day database demand — after Gov. Sherrill disclosed a years-old software error registered ~6,600 noncitizens (~400 voted), DOJ demanded the full voter database; NJ cited state law and refused New
Jul 23
Judge rules mail-voting EO Section 3 unconstitutional — Talwani refuses to dismiss the 23-state challenge, finding disenfranchisement "plausibly likely and imminent" for November New
Jul 23
Tennessee's Memphis-splitting map survives — three-judge federal panel denies preliminary injunction; the 9-0 GOP map that eliminated the state's only majority-Black district stays for 2026 New
Jul 23
Kentucky case dismissed; DOJ appeals losses to 8 circuits — Judge Boom follows the 6th Circuit's Michigan precedent. Same day, DOJ appeals its CT, NY, and NM losses — the voter-data fight now spans 8 federal appeals courts New
Jul 21
Arizona primary held under federal monitors — first statewide election of the pressure campaign; civil-rights groups trained hundreds of observers. Election-denier Alex Kolodin wins the GOP nomination for Secretary of State New
Jul 17
DHS ties election-security help to voter purges — Secretary Mullin conditions CISA election resources on states running rolls through the SAVE database, claims 250,000+ noncitizens registered in CA, NJ, NV, PA with no methodology, and threatens "criminal accountability" for refusing officials
Jul 16
Trump primetime address on "election security" — claims China acquired 220M voter files and that 18 states' voter data was "bought, stolen, or hacked"; orders FBI to reopen the debunked Muskegon, MI case; directs DHS to push states to purge rolls; demands SAVE America Act. Fact-checkers find no evidence for the central claims
Jul 16
D.C. National Guard deployment extended through Jan 2029 — ~5,000 troops from 20+ states will span the 2026 midterms and the next presidential transition. Constitutional scholars: "That should send up major red flags"
Jul 13
Georgia rebuffs DOJ threat letter — state general counsel defends citizenship-verification practices as deadline passes. PA's top election official follows Jul 15. No state is known to have capitulated to the criminal-threat letters
Jul 10
New York case dismissed — DOJ's 12th straight loss — Judge D'Agostino: a voter registration list "is not a record or paper" states must produce under federal law
Jul 9
Trump fires remaining EAC commissioners — Hicks, Hovland, and McCormick removed from the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission months before the midterms. Same day, Georgia's State Election Board adopts new tabulation rules over the AG's litigation warning
Jul 8
260 FBI personnel on the Fulton County case — internal memo shows agents pulled from field offices nationwide to review 700+ seized boxes with a Jul 17 deadline. ProPublica: FBI weighed AI review of ~150,000 seized ballot signatures
Jul 7
DOJ threatens election officials in all 50 states with prosecution — Dhillon letters warn officials could face criminal charges for "knowingly retaining noncitizens" on rolls; 5-day deadline. UT's Republican Lt. Gov.: "truly bizarre... sprinkled throughout with threats of criminal prosecution"
Jul 7
Federal election monitors headed to 15 jurisdictions in 6 states — AZ, MA, MI, MN, NH, VA primaries, mostly Democratic strongholds. Dhillon: "Stay tuned... an even more expanded program" for the general
Jul 7
Judge quashes DOJ subpoena for Fulton election workers' identities — Trump-appointed Judge Ray calls the demand for every 2020 election worker's name, address, and phone number an "arbitrary fishing expedition"
What You Can Do Now
Verify your voter registration — Check now and again before November. Protect against purges.
Check at vote.org →
Volunteer as a poll worker or observer — More eyes on the process deter irregularities.
Find your local signup →
Support local election officials — Attend board meetings, push back publicly on threats and intimidation.
Common Cause Election Hub →
Fund legal defense efforts — The Brennan Center, ACLU, and state AGs are fighting DOJ lawsuits and winning.
Brennan Center Tracker →   ACLU Voting Rights →
Contact your state representatives — Urge them to resist handing over sensitive voter data.
Find your legislators →
Track Project 2025 implementation — Stay informed on what's being implemented in real time.
Project 2025 Tracker →   Votebeat →
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