2026 Midterm Threat Assessment

Federal Election Interference Risk Map

Tracking DOJ lawsuits, FBI actions, Project 2025 implementation, and competitive House races. Based on Brennan Center, DOJ press releases, NPR, and news reporting through April 2026.

Risk Level
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29
States Sued
+ D.C. for voter data
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12
Complied
with DOJ demands
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1,000+
CISA Staff Lost
election security gutted
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The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency — which helped local officials protect voting systems from hacking — has lost over 1,000 employees through firings, layoffs, and transfers since early 2025. Dismantling CISA was a key Project 2025 recommendation.
47
States Contacted
by DOJ total
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At least 47 states and Washington, D.C. received DOJ requests for complete voter registration lists, including driver's license numbers and partial Social Security numbers. Only 13 have provided the data so far. The rest refused or sought clarification.
Courts Fighting Back
Illinois — Former DOJ Attorneys Oppose Lawsuit
18 former Justice Department attorneys from both parties filed amicus brief arguing DOJ lacks legal authority to demand voter data. Have filed similar briefs in most ongoing lawsuits nationwide.
Mar 3, 2026 · WTTW
Minnesota — Motion to Dismiss Hearing
Federal judge heard oral arguments on state's motion to dismiss DOJ voter data lawsuit. Decision pending. DOJ's legal strategy has faced dismissals in California, Michigan, and Oregon.
Mar 3, 2026 · MPR News
Federal Appeals — DOJ Escalating — Now 5 Cases Dismissed
DOJ appealed dismissals in Oregon and California to the 9th Circuit, and Michigan to the 6th Circuit. After losing 5 for 5 in trial courts, DOJ is escalating rather than accepting the rulings.
Feb 25, 2026 · Democracy Docket
Utah — Redistricting Map Upheld
Three-judge federal panel denied GOP challenge to court-ordered congressional map. Utah Supreme Court also rejected separate challenge. Map giving Democrats shot at House seat stands for 2026.
Feb 23, 2026 · NBC News
Fulton County, GA — Suing FBI for Ballot Return
County suing to recover 700+ boxes of 2020 records seized by FBI. Alleges affidavit relied on debunked claims and biased witnesses. Trump-appointed judge ordered FBI agent to testify about potentially misleading warrant.
Feb 2026 · Democracy Docket
Ohio — Voter Purge Lawsuit Filed
LWV and CAIR challenge SB 293 requiring monthly citizenship checks via flawed databases. Law allows cancellations without notice, even during NVRA 90-day quiet period before elections.
Feb 13, 2026 · Campaign Legal Center
Federal — Trump Election EO Blocked Again
Judge Kollar-Kotelly permanently blocked two more provisions: agencies cannot assess citizenship before offering voter registration forms, and military/overseas voters cannot be required to show proof of citizenship. 110-page ruling calls it unconstitutional.
Jan 30, 2026 · Democracy Docket
Michigan — Case Dismissed → DOJ Appealing
Trump-appointed Judge Jarbou ruled all three federal laws DOJ cited "do not allow the United States to obtain the records at issue." Third dismissal on the merits. DOJ appealed to 6th Circuit (Feb 25).
Feb 10, 2026 · Votebeat
California — Case Dismissed → DOJ Appealing
Judge ruled DOJ's voter data demands paint "an alarming picture regarding the centralization of Americans' information within the Executive Branch." DOJ appealed to 9th Circuit (Feb 25).
Jan 2026 · Brennan Center
Oregon — Case Dismissed → DOJ Appealing
Court rejected DOJ's legal theory that federal law entitles it to unredacted voter files with Social Security numbers. DOJ appealed to 9th Circuit (Feb 25).
Jan 2026 · Brennan Center Tracker
Georgia — Dismissed (Jurisdictional)
Judge dismissed voter data lawsuit because DOJ filed in the wrong court. Dismissed without prejudice — DOJ can refile in Atlanta. (The separate FBI raid on Fulton County is a different action.)
Jan 23, 2026 · Georgia Recorder
Massachusetts — Case Dismissed (5th Nationwide)
Judge Leo Sorokin ruled DOJ failed to state why it needed voter records. Fifth nationwide dismissal of DOJ voter data lawsuits, continuing the judicial trend against the administration's legal theory.
Apr 9, 2026 · GBH News
Federal — 24 States Sue Over Election EO
Coalition led by MA AG Campbell and PA Gov. Shapiro filed coordinated lawsuit challenging Trump's executive order directing USPS to control mail ballot delivery and creating a national voter eligibility database. Called it a "shocking and unprecedented power grab."
Apr 3, 2026 · Votebeat
Supreme Court — Watson v. RNC (Pending)
SCOTUS hearing challenge to mail ballot postmark deadlines. Oral arguments March 23. Ruling expected by summer could invalidate grace periods in 14+ states right before 2026 midterms.
Oral args Mar 23, 2026 · Voting Rights Lab
Last updated: April 10, 2026
Latest Developments
Apr 9
Massachusetts voter data case dismissed — Judge Leo Sorokin ruled DOJ failed to state why it needed the records. Fifth nationwide dismissal of DOJ voter data lawsuits New
Apr 6
DeSantis signs domestic terrorist designation bill — HB 1471 lets state officials label nonprofits as domestic terrorist organizations without criminal conviction. Criminalizes membership, bars state funding, expels university students. Takes effect July 1 New
Apr 3
24 states sue Trump over election control executive order — Coalition led by MA AG Campbell and PA Gov. Shapiro challenges EO directing USPS to maintain national voter eligibility list and refuse to deliver mail ballots to anyone not on it. Called it a "shocking and unprecedented power grab" New
Apr 1
DeSantis signs Florida SAVE Act — HB 991 requires proof of citizenship for voter registration. Removes student IDs as valid voter ID. Two federal lawsuits filed within minutes by LWV, NAACP, ACLU coalitions. Takes effect Jan 1, 2027 New
Mar 31
Trump signs executive order to federalize elections — Directs DHS and SSA to create national voter eligibility database. Orders USPS to refuse mail ballots to anyone not on federal list. Threatens states with criminal prosecution and funding cuts for noncompliance. Trump voted by mail himself days earlier New
Mar 27
Oklahoma settles with DOJ on voter data — First Republican-led state to reverse course after being sued. Agreed to provide voter data to DOJ New
Mar 20
DOJ files emergency motions in voter data cases — First urgency-based claims in the litigation track, asserting 2026 midterm validity is at risk without court rulings. Michigan formally rejected the emergency arguments New
Mar 17
SAVE Act clears Senate procedural vote 51-48 — First floor action on the bill. Extended debate underway despite lack of filibuster-proof majority New
Mar 15
SAVE Act Senate vote this week — Thune scheduled floor vote week of Mar 16 despite lacking 60 votes. Trump threatened to block all other legislation until it passes. Expected to fail on filibuster but signals escalating pressure New
Mar 14
6th Circuit partially expedites Michigan appeal — Court grants DOJ's request for faster briefing schedule; briefs due late March and mid-April. Michigan case positioned to potentially be first voter data case to reach Supreme Court New
Mar 11
Sen. Cornyn flips on filibuster — Texas Republican reverses decades of support, now backs "whatever changes to Senate rules may prove necessary" to pass SAVE Act. Driven by Paxton primary pressure and pursuit of Trump endorsement New
Mar 10
DNC sues Trump admin over federal agents at polls — 11 FOIA requests to DOJ, DHS, and DoD about plans to deploy armed agents or troops to polling places went unanswered for 5 months. White House press secretary refused to guarantee ICE won't be at polling locations New
Mar 9
FBI subpoenas Arizona 2020 election records — Grand jury subpoena issued to Arizona Senate for records from the Maricopa County Cyber Ninjas audit. Senate President Petersen (R) complied. AZ AG Mayes: "This is not a legitimate law enforcement inquiry." Expands 2020 investigation beyond Georgia New
What You Can Do Now
→Verify your voter registration — Check now and again before November. Protect against purges.
Check at vote.org →
→Volunteer as a poll worker or observer — More eyes on the process deter irregularities.
Find your local signup →
→Support local election officials — Attend board meetings, push back publicly on threats and intimidation.
Common Cause Election Hub →
→Fund legal defense efforts — The Brennan Center, ACLU, and state AGs are fighting DOJ lawsuits and winning.
Brennan Center Tracker →   ACLU Voting Rights →
→Contact your state representatives — Urge them to resist handing over sensitive voter data.
Find your legislators →
→Track Project 2025 implementation — Stay informed on what's being implemented in real time.
Project 2025 Tracker →   Votebeat →
Stay Informed
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Sources: Brennan Center for Justice · DOJ Press Releases · NPR · NBC News · Common Cause · Democracy Docket · Votebeat
Data as of March 5, 2026. This is an informational resource, not legal advice.
Corrections: [email protected] · RSS Feed